There’s been a serious Maritime accident today in the Kerch Strait between a Russian Coast Guard ship and a Ukrainian navy tugboat. Ukraine was transferring three navy ships, including two warships, from Odessa in the Black Sea to Mariupol when the collision occurred. Ukraine says the Russian ship rammed the tug in “openly aggressive actions” off the Moscow-annexed Crimean Peninsula, damaging its engine, shell plating, and guard rail. In response to the incident, Russia has closed the Kerch Strait to merchant vessels, which may have been her intent. The Kech Strait connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. It is an important merchant shipping and fishing zone.
The collision builds on tensions that have been growing since May when it was reported that Russia began detaining merchant ships, sometimes for days, heading to Ukrainian ports, inflicting economic losses on Ukraine. At the time of the maritime collision, Ukraine was transferring the three vessels to the Sea of Azov to increase security. The Azov is ‘patrolle’d by roughly 56 Russian vessels including war ships from her Black Sea Fleet and Caspian Flotilla. Ukraine has responded to Russian patrols by running troops and weapons along its southeast coast, increasing security from Mariupol to Berdyansk. They’ve conducted military exercises with attack helicopters.
Russia seems to intend to exert economic pressure on Ukraine to destabilize the strategic southeast region without an obvious military aggressive act, which would lead to Western sanctions.
Ashore, Mariupol is a city of 500,000 with a critical industrial port. In spring 2014, Russian separatists briefly held the city until Ukrainian battalions pushed them out.
In the nearby occupied area of the Ukraine, there are serious water shortages where Ukraine introduced a ban on the water supply. Vegetation maps show a rapid decline in vegetation growth. It is possible that today’s Russian pressure is intended to ease the water ban.
Russia built a $3.7 billion Crimean Bridge in May 2018, connecting occupied Ukraine to southern Russia across the Kerch Strait which led to Western sanctions against Russia. As the bridge was nearly completed, Russia detained a Crimean fishing vessel for illegally sailing under a Russian flag. In May, Russian border guards are reported to have arrested a Ukrainian fishing vessel and crew for illegally fishing in its exclusive economic zone. When the bridge was completed, Russia sent warships to create security for the bridge. 148 Ukrainian vessels have been detained by Russia since then, according to Ukrainian authorities, port authorities, and local merchant shipping firms. The bridge is of a low height with a 33 meter clearance which means ships can’t clear the bridge to reach Mariupol. Ukraine says this has resulted in a 30 percent loss in port revenues.
Because of a 2003 agreement signed by Vladmir Putin and President Kuchma to cooperate and share the use of the Sea of Azov and the Ketch Strait in joint control, Russian action is technically legal, but Russia has used the deal to create a blockade, according to Ukraine. Mariupol is a lucrative fishing area that employs 20,000 local area residents to make their income, and an important port for Ukraine to ship steel and grain. Ukraine could scrap the agreement but won’t.
Ukraine must respond with added security to avoid a further drop in merchant shipping to the port. She can’t overemphasized and draw too much attention to security issues which would further reduce merchant shipping out of fear of coming in to Mariupol.